Monday 30 September 2019

A Winning Sports Betting Strategy

The vast majority of the people who bet on sports don't have a strategy for winning. They depend entirely on luck for success or failure. In the long run that can achieve only one of the two. Failure, or losing.
For many the strategy involves finding a sure bet in the hopes of winning a lot of money quickly. Advertisements for betting system scams reinforce their mistaken belief in miracles, even if they never get suckered into buying them. Because sports betting has been promoted as a get rich quick scheme, many people will not believe it is possible to win any other way.
It is a simple matter to devise a winning sports betting strategy. The way you win in sports betting is to use the same principles the casinos use to beat the players. They have a built in mathematical edge in every game they offer. There is no way they can lose in the long run.
In sports betting, the house has very little control over the actual odds. The games depend on human action for the final result, not an inanimate object. Human beings hold no mathematical certainties. So the books offset the lack of control by charging you fee up front just to play. The vig.
This lack of control for the bookie is your opportunity to swing the long term advantage in your favor. It takes a win rate of 53% to offset the vig and be profitable. You get 50% with a coin flip, so all you really need is a slight advantage to win. A 55% win rate is achievable and will give you a 2% advantage over the house. That is enough to win them a lot of money, and it can win money for you if you play to that advantage.
There are a lot of ways to apply it, but there is only one winning sports betting strategy. Make sure that every bet you place has a greater than 53% probability of going your way. If you are not sure, don't bet. Unless luck is your real strategy.
The first step to winning is identifying the situations that give you a probability of winning that exceeds 53%. Find them, catalog them, and use them to shift the long term mathematical advantage in your favor. There is no other sports betting strategy that will allow you to win consistently.

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